Comment from Agrometeorologist

Communication report regarding the incidences of drought conditions in Poland

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with the Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2477 Polish municipalities (gminas) and, based on soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought.

In the sixth reporting period, i.e. from May 11th to July 10th, 2020, the average of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was positive and equalled 24 mm. In the analysed period it has decreased by 7 mm in relation to the previous reporting period (May 1st – June 30th) but increased by 124 mm in relation to the first reporting period (March 21st – May 20th).

The largest water deficit, ranging from -160 to -179 mm, was still recorded in the area of Szczecin Coastland (Uznam, Wolin, Plains: Wkrzańska, Wełtyńska, Pyrzycka, and the Bukowe Hills), where it has decreased in relation to the previous reporting period by 10 to 20 mm. Considerable water shortages, from -120 to -159 mm, were still recorded in the western part of the Pomeranian and Greater Poland Lake Districts, while in the eastern part of these regions water deficit ranged from -50 to -119mm. In the rest of the country no crop water deficit was recorded. Whereas in the area of the Carpathian Foothills, the Western Beskids, and in the southern part of the Masurian Lake District CWB values have decreased by 20 mm in relation to the previous reporting period, though water surplus in these areas is still significant, ranging from 100 to 200 mm.

Based on the current humidity conditions, IUNG-PIB states agricultural drought in the area of Poland.

Agricultural drought was stated in the following voivodeships:

  • Zachodniopomorskie,
  • Wielkopolskie,
  • Lubuskie,
  • Dolnośląskie,
  • Pomorskie.
  • Warmińsko-mazurskie,
  • Łódzkie.

Agricultural drought affected the following crops:

  • Rape and turnip rape,
  • Spring cereals,
  • Fruit shrubs,
  • Maize for grain,
  • Maize for silage,
  • Legumes,
  • Winter cereals,
  • Strawberries,
  • Ground vegetables.

In the sixth reporting period, from May 11th to July 10th, 2020, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for rape and turnip rape. Agricultural drought in this crop was recorded in 236 gminas (9.53% of all gminas in Poland). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has increased by 85, which constitutes an increase of 3.43%.

Drought occurred in 7 voivodeships, in the area of 2.22% of arable land (increase by 0.49%). Table 1 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in rape and turnip rape in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 1. Agricultural drought in rape and turnip rape

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1138676.1127.34
2.lubuskie824251.227.33
3.wielkopolskie2267332.303.39
4.dolnośląskie169169.470.84
5.pomorskie12386.500.03
6.warmińsko-mazurskie11665.170.02
7.łódzkie17752.820.23

In the current sixty-day reporting period agricultural drought affected also spring cereals. It was recorded in 74 gminas in Poland (2.99% of all gminas in the country), which constitutes a decrease of 3.11% in relation to the previous reporting period.

Agricultural drought occurred in 4 voivodeships in the area of 0.39% of arable land, which constitutes a decrease of 1.59% in relation to the previous reporting period. Table 2 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in spring cereals in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 2. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1135952.216.56
2.lubuskie8267.320.38
3.wielkopolskie22683.540.04
4.dolnośląskie16910.590.00

In this period agricultural drought affected also fruit shrubs. It was recorded in 72 gminas in Poland (2.91% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 2.10%.

Agricultural drought occurred in 4 voivodeships, in the area of 0.39% of arable land (decrease by 0.93% of arable land). Table 3 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 3. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1135750.446.63
2.lubuskie8267.320.28
3.wielkopolskie22683.540.02
4.dolnośląskie16910.590.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for grain. It was recorded in 61 gminas in Poland (2.46% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 8, i.e. by 0.33%.

Agricultural drought occurred in the area of 0.23% of arable land (decrease by 0.08%). Table 4 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for grain.

Tab. 4. Agricultural drought in maize for grain

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1135346.904.04
2.lubuskie8244.880.11
3.wielkopolskie22641.770.00

Agricultural drought affected also maize for silage. It was recorded in 61 gminas in Poland (2.46% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 8, i.e. by 0.33%.

Agricultural drought occurred in the area of 0.23% of arable land (decrease by 0.08%). Table 5 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage.

Tab. 5. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1135346.904.04
2.lubuskie8244.880.11
3.wielkopolskie22641.770.00

Agricultural drought occurred in legumes as well. It was recorded in 38 gminas in Poland (1.53% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 31, i.e. by 1.53%.

Agricultural drought occurred in 2 voivodeships in the area of 0.12% of arable land (decrease by 0.22%). Table 6 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 6. Agricultural drought in legumes

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1133631.862.08
2.lubuskie8222.440.04

Agricultural drought occurred also in winter cereals. It was recorded in 30 gminas in Poland (1.21% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 71, i.e. by 2.87%.

Agricultural drought occurred in 2 voivodeships, in the area of 0.10% of arable land (decrease by 0.61% in relation to the previous reporting period). Table 7 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in winter cereals in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 7. Agricultural drought in winter cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1132824.781.66
2.lubuskie8222.440.03

Agricultural drought occurred also in strawberries. It was recorded in 5 gminas in Poland (0.20% of all gminas in the country). In relation to the previous reporting period, the number of gminas affected by agricultural drought has decreased by 55, i.e. by 2.22%.

Drought conditions were stated in 2 voivodeships. Table 8 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in strawberries in particular voivodeships.

Tab. 8. Agricultural drought in strawberries

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie11332.650.02
2.lubuskie8222.440.01

Agricultural drought occurred also in ground vegetables. It was recorded in 1 gmina in Poland (0.04% of all gminas in the country). Table 9 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in ground vegetables.

Tab. 9. Agricultural drought in ground vegetables

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie8211.220.00

May was cold this year. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north of Poland, ranging between 9 and 11°C, whereas the highest temperatures occurred in the Lubusz Land, exceeding 12°C. In the majority of Poland temperatures ranged from 11 to 12°C. In the vast areas of the country temperatures in May were lower than the multiannual norm by 1-2.5°C, or even more than 2.5°C: in the Polish Uplands, Masovia, and Warmia-Masuria.

In the first and second decade of June, the highest temperatures (from 14 to 16°C in the 1st and from 19.5 to more than 20.5°C in the 2nd decade) were recorded in the vast area of Central Poland. In the south and north of the country it was colder, from 12 to 14°C in the first and from 16 to 19.5°C in the second decade. The third decade of the month was the warmest in the eastern regions, with temperatures ranging from 20 to more than 20.5°C. In the majority of areas, the recorded temperatures ranged from 19 to 20°C. The lowest recorded temperatures occurred in the south-western part of Poland: 16-19°C.

The first decade of July was highly diversified in terms of temperature distribution, with lower temperatures in the north (16-18.5°C) and higher in the south (18.5°C to more than 20°C).

In May precipitation was highly diversified. The highest precipitation was recorded in eastern and southern regions of the country, ranging from 60 to 150mm and constituting 100-160% of the multiannual norm. The lowest precipitation, between 30 and 60 mm, occurred in the north-western part of Poland, where it constituted 50-100% of the norm.

In June precipitation was intense in vast areas of the country throughout the month, ranging from 15 to 100m (in the second and third decade even exceeding 100m). In the first and second decade of the month, in the north-western part of the country precipitation was less intense, from less than 5 to 15 mm. Similar precipitation was recorded in the Silesian, Kraków-Częstochowa and Małopolska Uplands in the first decade, and in Podlasie Lowland in the second decade of the month.

In the first decade of July precipitation was again diversified: small but numerous areas with heavy storms and rainfalls ranging from 20 to 50 mm throughout Poland with scarce precipitation (up to 10 mm) in south-western regions of the country.

As stated by IUNG-PIB, the largest crop water deficit in the period of May 11th - July 10th is recorded in the north-western part of Poland, however, it has decreased by 10-20 mm in relation to the previous sixty-day period (May 1st – June 30th). In the south of the country, the CWB values have decreased in relation to the previous reporting period by more than 20 mm, yet water surplus in this area is still significant: from 100 to more than 200 mm.

Intense precipitation in the vast areas of the country occurring throughout the period under consideration resulted in water surplus. Particularly high CWB values were recorded in the south of Poland. Excess of water is still occurring in the following voivodeships: opolskie, śląskie, małopolskie, świętokrzyskie, podkarpackie, lubelskie and mazowieckie.

The area affected by agricultural drought has decreased in relation to the previous reporting period in the following crops:

  • spring cereals,
  • fruit shrubs,
  • maize for grain,
  • maize for silage,
  • legumes,
  • winter cereals,
  • strawberries,
  • ground vegetables.

The number of gminas and the percentage of the potential area of arable land affected by agricultural drought have decreased as well. However, in case of rape and turnip rape the range of agricultural drought has grown.

Lack of sufficient precipitation can still be observed in the north-western part of Poland, where it leads to considerable water deficit in soil. Due to a constant water shortage, agricultural drought is still recorded in the following voivodeships: zachodniopomorskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie, dolnośląskie and pomorskie. To a lesser extent, water deficit is also affecting crops in warmińsko-mazurskie and łódzkie voivodeships.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Oleszek

Report prepared by: Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. IUNG-PIB, Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko, Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska, Dr Jan Jadczyszyn, Mgr Piotr Koza, Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska, Mgr Agata Ścibior

Contact
Institute of Soil Science and Plants Cultivation
State Research Institute
ul. Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Puławy

Zakład Agrometeorologii i Zastosowań Informatyki
phone: 81 4786 879, 81 4786 752

Zakład Gleboznawstwa Erozji i Ochrony Gruntów
phone: 81 4786 779

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Opracowanie IUNG-PIB 2020 na zlecenie Misterstwa Rolnictwa i Rozwoju Wsi